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Dems' red-state showings raise prospect of a bigger 2028 map

Data: RealClearPolitics, American Presidency Project; Note: Nebraska's Senate race is between a Republican and an independent; Chart: Erin Davis/Axios Move over Wisconsin and Arizona. With Democrats making Republicans sweat in a host of red-state Senate races, a new batch of swing states may be emerging. Why it matters: Some of the closest Senate races are in Nebraska, Ohio, Texas, Iowa and even Kansas. Sure, this could be a blip — or a reminder that it's a 50-50 moody nation, even in a bunch of red states. The conditions that helped Barack Obama carry conservative states like Indiana and North Carolina in 2008 — an unpopular war, a bruising economy, an electorate hungry for change — could resonate again in 2028. State of play: Democratic and Republican Senate candidates are running margin-of-error races in red states that not long ago were thought to be forbidding, or even a wasted effort, to many Democrats. The Senate races in Kansas and Ohio are tied. So is Nebraska, where independent Dan Osborn is trying to knock off Sen. Pete Ricketts. Democrat James Talarico has consistently led polls in Texas, though that race appears to be tightening as money pours into the state on behalf of Republican Ken Paxton. Alaska is also a toss-up. President Trump won all these states by double digits in 2024. Zoom in: Republican operatives told Axios they're far from convinced that what's happening now will create a new slate of swing states in the 2028 race for the White House. They see the current campaign as more of a one-off — a combination of dismay with Trump, high prices and uninspiring candidates. "None of those states will be targeted [by Democrats] in the 2028 presidential. I will bet big money on that. But … all are in danger this year," one GOP consultant told Axios. "It's a function of the atmosphere that we're playing defense in R+15 states. There's lethargy on our side," a Republican pollster said. "I don't think they're the new swing states per se." But Democrats sa

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Scoop: Top Trump operative enlisted to rescue Kansas senator's campaign

A top Trump political operative has been tapped to help boost Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall's campaign in the weeks before the Nov. 3 election, the latest sign of how Republicans are scrambling to defend the red-state seat. Why it matters: The hiring of veteran strategist Chris Grant reflects the GOP's growing anxiety over Kansas' Senate race. Marshall is running neck and neck with Democrat Adam Hamilton in a state President Trump won by 16 points in 2024. Republicans fear losing Kansas could be a domino in costing them their Senate majority. Driving the news: GOP operatives have become increasingly frustrated with Marshall's reelection campaign, which they believe hasn't been aggressive enough at a time when soaring fuel prices have particularly hurt farmers in Kansas and elsewhere in the Midwest. Grant, who helped lead the main pro-Trump super PAC in 2024 and has remained involved in Trump's political operation, will be a senior adviser to Marshall and help guide strategy in the final three weeks. Grant also worked on Marshall's 2020 Senate campaign. What they're saying: "Chris is an absolute pro who has been a longtime friend to Team Marshall. Having him help land the plane these last three weeks is a no brainer," Brent Robertson, Marshall's chief of staff, told Axios. Zoom in: Two GOP outside groups — the Senate Leadership Fund and Club for Growth — are pouring millions into the Kansas race. SLF, the principal super PAC aligned with Senate GOP leadership, is spending $14 million in Kansas after shifting resources from the Senate race in North Carolina, where Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper has a significant polling lead over former Republican National Committee chair Michael Whatley. Trump said in a social media post Monday that he would campaign for Marshall "very soon." A Democrat-aligned super PAC has announced plans to spend $5 million to help Hamilton. Between the lines: Marshall has faced damaging headlines recently, including a New York Times report that his medi

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