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Cook Political Report tilts 18 House races toward Democrats

House races in Iowa, Pennsylvania, Washington, Michigan and more are shifting in Democrats' direction, according to a Friday update from the closely watched Cook Political Report. Why it matters: The GOP's midterm outlook was already bleak, anchored by an unpopular war and high fuel prices. But staving off a blue resurgence, despite heavy spending, is looking increasingly complicated as Election Day approaches. Driving the news: Cook's new moves put the likely midterm outcome at Democrats picking up nine to 19 seats, a range of 224 to 234. The shifts include: Five seats — in Iowa, Pennsylvania and Washington — moving from toss ups to leaning toward Democrats, including Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks' (R-Iowa) tough rematch race against Democrat ⁠Christina Bohannan. Cook also nudged four races — in Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina and Virginia — from leaning toward Republicans to toss-ups. That's good news for Rep. Don Davis (D-N.C.), whose district was warped by mid-decade redistricting. Republicans' hold on other races in Kentucky, Maine, Pennsylvania, Arkansas and Indiana slipped, shifting them to Lean R or Likely R. Meanwhile, Democrats' hold on Nevada, New York and Nebraska races tightened. Friction point: President Trump is crisscrossing the country to campaign for GOP candidates. But with the midterms serving as a referendum on his White House, his polling may well be a liability for Republicans in tight races. Republicans have quietly distanced themselves from the president — and it appears even some Trump voters get it: A Politico poll out Friday found that some one-in-four who voted for him in 2024 say the Republican candidate in their district would be better off breaking from Trump. Zoom in: Of the seats labeled "Toss Up" by Cook, six are held by Democrats, and 15 belong to Republicans. Per Cook, Democrats need to win 20% of the toss-up races to reach a majority, assuming the seats that favor them in the nonpartisan analysis go Democrats' way. The bottom lin

axios.comLeft

The Democrats taking the fight to Republican strongholds

In Florida, Kansas, Iowa and Texas, Democratic candidates are outperforming the predictions, but both parties may struggle to consolidate gains This was originally published in The Stakes 2026, a newsletter about the midterm elections. Sign up to get it in your inbox The most valuable education I received for becoming a political editor was growing up in Florida. During the entirety of the 18 years I lived there, it was a purple state that voted for Barack Obama twice, and while I would not say my community was diverse, the spectrum of political ideology was vast. I had a close friend who kept a life-sized cutout of George W Bush in her bedroom, and another who helped organize Amnesty International fundraisers against landmines. When the state turned deeply Republican in 2016, and remained that way, I continued to harbor a suspicion that it wasn’t the whole story. Even so, nothing could prepare me for the sheer surprise when Angie Nixon – the state legislator who joined the Democratic Socialists of America running against Alex Vindman, a centrist with national name recognition – won the Democratic primary for Senate in Florida. That shock has continued in the months after, as we see the Democratic gubernatorial candidate David Jolly running neck-and-neck with Republican Byron Donalds, who seemed like a shoo-in just weeks ago. And while Nixon is polling behind her Republican opponent, Ashley Moody, the race is much closer than anyone following Florida politics expected. So much so that the senior progressive senator Bernie Sanders has newly poured millions of dollars from his campaign funds into the state, and the popular congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez went to campaign with Nixon last month. Here in Michigan, we know that Canada is not our enemy. We need to end this tariff war now.

theguardian.comLeft

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